Far-right AfD scores historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, challenging Merz's fragile government
Chancellor Friedrich Merz faced mounting pressure Monday as his center-right CDU party reeled from a crushing electoral defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany achieved its strongest result yet and came within reach of forming Germany's first far-right state government since World War II.
The AfD captured 43.9 percent of votes and 39 seats in Sunday's election, falling just three seats short of an absolute majority in the 89-seat state parliament. The result marked a dramatic reversal from the 2021 election, when the party secured only 20.8 percent and 23 seats. Meanwhile, Merz's CDU collapsed to 17.2 percent and 15 seats, down from 37.1 percent and 40 seats five years ago, ending nearly a quarter-century of CDU governance in the eastern German state.
The crushing defeat comes at a particularly vulnerable moment for Merz, who assumed the chancellorship in May 2025 after his party won national elections in February. Recent polling shows 86 percent of Germans expressing dissatisfaction with his government's performance, with only 13 percent satisfied. The 70-year-old chancellor, who had pledged to push back against the AfD by returning the CDU to its conservative roots, now faces questions about whether his strategy has backfired.
Voter turnout reached an all-time high of 77.8 percent, up sharply from 60 percent in 2021, with the AfD appearing to have mobilized many citizens who had not participated in previous elections. The party's lead candidate, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, mocked Merz as "a very good campaigner" for the AfD, declaring that every day with the chancellor in office was "one day too many."
Historic breakthrough for extremist party
The result represents an unprecedented moment in postwar German politics. Modern Germany has not seen a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national, state, or major-city government since World War II. The Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD was classified as "confirmed right-wing extremist" by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution in 2023, two years before Germany's domestic intelligence agency applied the same designation to the national party in May 2025, based on a 1,100-page report citing the party's ethnically-based concept of the German people.
Despite falling short of an outright majority, AfD leaders urged their state branch to pursue government formation. National co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla called the result a potential blueprint for the 2029 federal elections. Siegmund said his party stood ready to "extend a hand to all forces that want to bring about a fundamental political shift with us," leaving open the possibility of recruiting defectors from other parties.
The visibly dejected CDU state premier, Sven Schulze, acknowledged that national government policies had complicated his campaign. "We often faced headwinds, and that wasn't always easy," he said.
Coalition arithmetic points to gridlock
With the AfD lacking an absolute majority, extended negotiations now loom before a new government can be formed in the state assembly in Magdeburg. Parties opposed to the AfD — including the CDU, center-left SPD, Greens, and far-left Die Linke — also lack a clear majority. One potential kingmaker is the BSW, a left-wing populist party founded in January 2024 by former Die Linke politician Sahra Wagenknecht that combines leftist economic positions with hard-right stances on immigration, provided it clears the five-percent threshold to enter parliament.
Daniel Guenther, the CDU premier of Schleswig-Holstein state, called the result "a shocking moment for our country." He noted that "for the first time since the end of World War II, the AfD — a party whose state branch is classified as right-wing extremist — is close to securing an absolute majority."
Political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum characterized the outcome as "more than a severe electoral defeat for the CDU," describing it as "a tectonic shift in the party system" where "a protest and opposition party is transforming — at least in parts of east Germany — into a party with a realistic prospect of holding power."
More electoral tests ahead
The pressure on Merz is likely to intensify in coming weeks. Two additional state elections are scheduled for September 20 in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD is polling strongly at 37 percent in the latter state. These contests will provide further tests of whether Merz's conservative pivot can stem the far-right surge or whether it has inadvertently strengthened the AfD's appeal.
Rumblings of discontent emerged within CDU ranks following Sunday's vote. Dennis Radtke, chairman of the party's employee wing, called it "a watershed moment" and said "the usual platitudes about a 'bitter evening' and the need for analysis won't cut it." However, Thorsten Frei, leader of the center-right parliamentary group, urged calm and warned against drawing "wrong conclusions" from a single state result.
Lembcke posed the central question now facing the chancellor: "Merz took office with the promise of pushing back the AfD — yet instead, the party has grown even stronger, despite the Union's shift to a more conservative course. This confronts Merz with a question of renewed urgency: what strategy can the CDU use to reverse this trend?"
The AfD, founded in 2013 as a eurosceptic protest movement, transformed into an anti-immigration party that railed against former CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel's open-door refugee policy. Merz has attempted to address these concerns through stricter immigration controls while working to revive Germany's stagnant economy, but Sunday's result suggests these efforts have failed to win back voters drawn to the far right.
