US technology concerns weigh on trading
Declining stocks outnumbered gainers in Jakarta's early session, with RTI recording 329 losers, 137 advances and 181 unchanged stocks. Trading totaled 1.89 billion shares worth Rp 485.99 billion ($26.7 million), spread across 58,777 transactions.
Phintraco Sekuritas attributed Friday's sharp Wall Street decline to pressure on AI-related shares and investor positioning before the US midterm elections. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86%, compared with declines of 1.82% for the S&P 500 and 1.09% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
"Earnings reports and performance projections from technology companies that fell short of expectations have heightened concerns about signs of slowing growth in AI-related businesses," Phintraco Sekuritas wrote in its Monday research note.
Other Asian markets showed no uniform direction at 9:26 a.m. Jakarta time. The Nikkei 225 in Japan was down 0.29%, but South Korea's Kospi was up 1.17%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.40% and 0.93%, respectively.
Phintraco identified this week's US midterms as a key event for investors. Polls suggest Republicans could lose their House majority and control of the Senate, potentially making it harder for President Donald Trump to advance his agenda.
"Geopolitical conflicts will also remain on investors' radar, alongside the ongoing third-quarter 2026 earnings season," the brokerage said.
Index exclusion takes effect
Monday also marks the removal of stocks classified as having high shareholding concentration, or HSC, from the JCI calculation. Phintraco said the change is expected to give the remaining constituents greater index weight, especially companies with large market capitalizations.
Tempo reported that the Indonesia Stock Exchange had classified 82 stocks as HSC as of Oct. 22, 2026. Those shares represented about 18% of the JCI's weighting and roughly 30% of the exchange's total market capitalization.
The exclusion takes effect Nov. 2 but does not remove the companies from the exchange: their shares remain listed and available for trading. According to Tempo, the policy draws on practices used by the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Economic releases and a narrower surplus forecast
Indonesia's data calendar this week includes the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), trade balance and inflation figures. Investors also await third-quarter 2026 gross domestic product growth, foreign exchange reserves and the house price index.
Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia forecast a September 2026 trade surplus of $3 billion, smaller than August's $3.55 billion surplus.
BSI Chief Economist Banjaran Surya Indrastomo estimated exports at $26.4 billion, a 7.1% increase from a year earlier. His import projection was $23.4 billion, representing faster annual growth of 15.3%.
Elevated coal prices continue to support exports. Imports, meanwhile, are being lifted by higher global oil prices and demand for raw materials and capital goods for domestic manufacturing. Kiwoom warned that import growth exceeding export growth could put pressure on the surplus.
Oil reaches six-month highs amid Iran risks
Concern that the US-Iran conflict could escalate after the midterms helped push oil prices more than 2% higher on Friday, Oct. 30, to levels last seen in late April.
According to The National, Brent briefly reached $118 a barrel before settling at $117.64, up 2.4%. US West Texas Intermediate finished at $104.12 a barrel, a gain of 2.08%. Both benchmarks reached six-month highs and recorded their fourth consecutive monthly gains.
The National reported that the US-Israeli war with Iran was in its ninth month by late October. Trump said on Oct. 30 that he believed it would "end soon," while Qatari mediators returned to Tehran to seek a deal. Two tankers had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. Trump had previously said Washington would not strike Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Gold moved in the opposite direction, dropping 2.7% to $3,910 per troy ounce, its lowest price in a year, amid worries about inflation and higher interest rates.
