US cites eligibility violations
According to DW, Greer said the two governments were violating AGOA's eligibility requirements. He cited "barriers that undermine American trade and investment and practices that pose a threat to US national security and foreign policy interests in the region." His statement did not identify particular barriers or explain the security and foreign policy concerns.
The president must give Congress at least 60 days' notice before ending a country's benefits. South Africa therefore has a 60-day window to address Washington's concerns before a suspension can take effect, according to bne IntelliNews and BusinessTech.
The country-level decisions are separate from AGOA's renewal. After lapsing on September 30, 2025, the program received retroactive authorization in February 2026 through December 31, 2026. A further extension in September 2026 kept it running through December 2028, although participating countries still face annual US eligibility reviews.
AGOA dates to 2000, when then-President Bill Clinton introduced it. Over its 26 years, it has provided duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products from sub-Saharan Africa and become a central part of US economic engagement with the region. Its coverage includes more than 1,800 specific products from over 30 eligible African countries.
Eligibility requires open market economies, the removal of barriers to US trade and investment, and respect for democratic principles, the rule of law, human rights and labor protections. The most recent removals took effect in January 2024, when Gabon, Niger, the Central African Republic and Uganda lost their benefits.
South Africa's trade exposure
South Africa is AGOA's largest beneficiary, accounting for 54% of exports to the United States under the program over the last 25 years, according to BusinessTech. Its AGOA exports in 2025 were worth $1.7 billion and included car parts, citrus fruit and wine.
Congressional Research Service figures put total US imports under AGOA at $8.0 billion in 2024, a 13% decline from $9.3 billion in 2023. South Africa led suppliers of non-crude-oil goods under the program; passenger vehicles and parts represented 64% of its AGOA-eligible products that year.
South Africa's Trade Ministry said last week that it was ready for possible exclusion. It put AGOA shipments at about 10% of the country's exports to the United States and 1% of its worldwide exports. "AGOA remains important to South Africa, but it does not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the United States," the ministry said.
Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau valued bilateral trade in 2025 at $28.8 billion. He also said the more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa support roughly 134,600 jobs, while US businesses had committed more than $5 billion in investment over the past year.
The tariff consequences would differ by product. Wandile Sihlobo, South Africa's presidential envoy on agriculture and land, estimated that some qualifying goods currently subject to a 12.5% US duty could face an additional 3.4 percentage points if AGOA preferences end. The resulting rate of about 15.9% would remain below the 30% tariff levied in 2025.
Pretoria prepares support and seeks other markets
On Monday, South Africa's government reaffirmed the importance of the United States as a trading partner and pledged support for affected sectors. The country's export-dependent citrus industry warned that its entire value chain "on both sides of the Atlantic, is now under threat." It said jobs and the economic security of whole communities were at stake.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has said in recent weeks that South Africa needs to prepare for losing AGOA access by pursuing new markets and trade agreements, including with China. China has introduced zero-tariff treatment for qualifying South African goods for the period from May 1, 2026, to April 30, 2028.
Rwanda faces broader loss of benefits
For Rwanda, the planned termination would broaden restrictions already in place. Its apparel exports have been excluded from AGOA benefits since July 31, 2018. That suspension followed an out-of-cycle review prompted by Rwanda's tariff barriers on used clothing imported from the United States. The January 2027 plan would reach beyond apparel to Rwanda's eligibility more broadly.
Rwanda has relatively little trade exposed to the decision: total US goods imports from the country amounted to $43.3 million in 2025, according to the US Trade Representative. Coffee and minerals are among its main exports to the United States.
Washington has also stepped up economic pressure on Rwanda over allegations that it supports the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Last week, the United States sanctioned Rwanda's Defense Ministry, along with several individuals, institutions and a gold refinery. The ministry denies ties to M23.
