Young workers face a different trend
Youth unemployment increased across three consecutive Statistics Indonesia (BPS) survey periods: from 16.26 percent in November 2025 to 16.36 percent in February 2026, then to 17.37 percent in May, according to IDN Research Institute. The national rate, by contrast, declined to 4.65 percent in May.
In February, 7.24 million people were unemployed, putting the national rate at 4.68 percent. People ages 15 to 24 accounted for about 3.55 million of that total, or nearly half.
A separate measure captures young people disconnected from both work and learning. BPS classified 19.44 percent of Indonesians ages 15 to 24 as not in education, employment or training (NEET) in 2025, according to Kompas.com's English edition. That represents nearly one in five people in the age group.
University graduates also face difficulty finding work. Kompas.id reported that bachelor's degree holders made up 14.31 percent of the 7.22 million unemployed people in May 2026, or about 1.03 million. Their number rose steadily from 0.75 million in February 2023 and 1.01 million in February 2025, despite a decline in total unemployment.
The Youth Pledge and the first job
Pakpahan connects the search for work to Sumpah Pemuda, the Youth Pledge commemorated each October. On Oct. 28, 1928, young people representing different parts of the archipelago pledged unity around a shared homeland, nation and language. His argument is that, nearly a century later, opportunities to enter working life give practical meaning to that commitment.
A first job allows young adults to build skills and experience, become financially independent and make decisions about their future. Without that opening, they remain dependent on family while the experience employers seek stays out of reach.
Applicants face a difficult entry requirement: they need work to demonstrate their abilities, yet employers often want evidence of those abilities before hiring. Long waits can further weaken confidence and leave applicants with an accumulating experience gap.
Training and the demand for workers
Employers report recruitment problems even as young people struggle to find jobs. Citing the Indonesia profile in the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs 2025 report, the manpower minister said 54 percent of Indonesian companies face a skills gap and about 48 percent have difficulty finding talent suited to their needs.
The government's 2026 National Vocational Training Program, administered by the Ministry of Manpower, has places for 300,000 participants. It targets SMA/SMK high school and vocational school graduates who are at least 17 and have a SiapKerja platform account. Companies can also receive a super tax deduction of up to 200 percent for providing vocational education and training, Kompas.id reported.
Pakpahan argues that improving skills must be accompanied by a stronger capacity to create formal jobs. Preparing people for employment does not itself produce vacancies: businesses also need expanding demand, investment and economic conditions that support productive activity.
The employment figures show the scale of informal work. Of Indonesia's 148.19 million employed people in May 2026, 87.88 million, or 59.30 percent, worked in the informal sector. IDN Research Institute also reported an average monthly wage of Rp3.39 million for laborers, employees and staff.
A limited demographic opportunity
A large working-age population is not, by itself, an economic dividend, Pakpahan argues. Realizing that potential requires productive jobs in which people can use and develop relevant skills.
Population figures already show a shift. According to the 2025 Inter-Census Population Survey (SUPAS), Indonesia's dependency ratio reached 45.05, compared with 44.33 in the 2020 Long Form census. People age 60 and older represented 11.97 percent of the population.
Kompas.id reports that Indonesia's demographic window of opportunity is expected to start narrowing around 2035–2040, before the country moves into an aging population structure. Continued growth in unemployment among educated people raises the risk that the country will grow old before it becomes rich.
