Contamination risks and rice inspections
BPOM head Taruna Ikrar said in Jakarta on Wednesday that El Niño is expected to continue into early 2027. He called for preventive action against microbiological and chemical contamination, as well as food counterfeiting linked to disrupted supplies. Temperature extremes and drought-related shortages of clean water directly affect the food supply chain, he said.
The agency identified four areas of concern: shortages that encourage food adulteration, drought-related growth of aflatoxin-producing mold in corn and peanuts, heat damage to food, and sanitation difficulties where clean water is scarce.
BPOM has asked the National Food Agency (Bapanas) and state logistics agency Bulog to reinforce inspections of government rice reserves before releasing them for distribution. The proposed checks are intended to prevent rice with discoloration, odors or mold from being distributed.
Between October 2024 and October 2026, BPOM issued 1,074 Processed Food Safety Management System (SMKPO) certificates. Its ongoing oversight also includes routine sampling of poultry, eggs, fish and vegetables in areas vulnerable to drought.
Forecasts point to months of weather risks
Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projected that El Niño could continue until early 2027. It put the probability of moderate intensity at 98 percent and strong intensity at 62 percent, and forecast July through September as the peak of the 2026 dry season.
At an October 20, 2026, meeting with President Prabowo Subianto, the National Economic Council (DEN) recommended preparing market interventions against possible food price volatility. The council cited a forecast for El Niño to last through the first quarter of 2027, followed by La Niña in mid-2027. DEN Vice Chair Marie Elka Pangestu said nearly all previous El Niño episodes had been accompanied by sharply rising food prices.
The World Bank's September 2026 Food and Nutrition Security Update also reported that El Niño conditions were already present. It expected them to strengthen through late 2026 and continue into early 2027, increasing the likelihood of rainfall disruptions, extreme heat, drought and flooding.
Rice reserves and planned distribution
Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman said national rice stocks had reached a record high. To prepare production for the weather's effects, the government is optimizing land use, improving irrigation and using drought-resistant seeds.
Amran, who also heads Bapanas, said Bulog held 4.5 million tons in government rice reserves as of October 19, 2026. Bapanas figures put the increase from October 2023's 1.51 million tons at nearly 200 percent, entirely supplied by domestic rice production.
Other reserve estimates were reported at different times. The World Bank's September update cited public reserves of 4.6 million tonnes and expected Indonesian rice production of 28.7 million tonnes for January through September 2026. On September 26, Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani reported reserves of about 4.8 million tons, which he said could cover domestic consumption through the end of 2026.
Ramdhani said those stocks would support additional food assistance for about 33.2 million beneficiaries between October and December, along with an extra 1 million tons of rice for the SPHP market-stabilization program. He projected that approximately 3.2 million tons would remain at year-end.
Bapanas also reported reserves beyond rice as of October 2026: 84,000 tons of feed corn, 26,000 kiloliters of cooking oil held by Perum Bulog and ID Food, and 39 tons of chicken meat held by ID Food.
Price pressures and market measures
Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian said prices were still rising for several foods, especially red chilies and cayenne peppers. He attributed the increases partly to harvest failures caused by extreme weather and prolonged drought, and said rice, broiler chicken and eggs also needed continued monitoring.
The government is encouraging trade between regions to move food from places with surpluses to those facing shortages. Karnavian said market operations with Bulog and Bapanas also include SPHP rice distribution to keep prices affordable. Preparations to use government rice reserves for market interventions include closer distribution coordination with Bulog and local governments.
Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan called for early preparations to give officials time to address different scenarios. He said ministries, agencies and regional governments needed to coordinate on supplies, distribution and affordability.
Earlier price data showed annual rice inflation easing to 3.98 percent in June 2026 from 4.55 percent in May, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Rice prices rose 0.45 percent month over month in June.
Globally, the World Bank's September update reported commodity price increases since June 2026: cereals were up 18 percent, maize 26 percent and wheat 22 percent.
