Water supplies and production targets
Speaking during an inspection of forest and land fire management in Central Kalimantan on October 30, Nurofiq said officials had assessed the climate risks facing rice production and were working to improve water infrastructure in farming areas.
"Our rice stocks will be under pressure under these conditions. We have tried to closely monitor eight to 10 major rice-producing provinces. We also continue to operate water pumps and develop piped irrigation systems in these areas," he said.
Provisional government figures, based on planting conditions, put national rice production at about 32 million tons. Officials are seeking another 1.5 million tons of output in December to bolster domestic supplies and preserve rice self-sufficiency.
An earlier estimate from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), reported by Kompas, put January-August 2026 production at 25.28 million tons, up just 0.05 percent from the same period in 2025. The national figure contrasted with year-over-year declines in three disaster-affected provinces in Sumatra: 18.4 percent in Aceh, 18.57 percent in North Sumatra and 6.1 percent in West Sumatra.
Rice reserves and household assistance
The government is also stepping up market interventions to limit food price swings and protect household purchasing power. A rice assistance program targeting 33.24 million families provides 30 kilograms to each beneficiary family.
Nurofiq said the interventions were meant to counter possible El Niño-related food price increases while meeting higher demand before Christmas and New Year, followed by Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr in early 2027.
An October 23 Presidential Secretariat statement put national rice stocks at 4.56 million tons that month. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman called the level a historic high, while also noting that stocks had reached 5.7 million tons at one point.
Earlier price-stabilization efforts had drawn on government rice reserves, known as CBP. Kompas reported that about 1.4 million tons had been distributed over roughly seven months as of July 24. By that date, state logistics agency Bulog had procured domestic paddy equivalent to 3.5 million tons of rice, meeting 87.5 percent of its 4-million-ton target.
BPS figures cited by Kompas showed rice prices above their year-earlier levels throughout the first half of 2026. Annual rice inflation was 3.44 percent in January, 3.61 percent in February, 3.71 percent in March, 4.36 percent in April, 4.55 percent in May and 3.98 percent in June.
Planning for El Niño into 2027
The climate risk extends beyond this year's harvests. In a July 28 report, Kompas said Indonesia's dry season had begun alongside El Niño, which was expected to continue until May 2027. The report warned that rice output was likely to fall and that already-high rice prices could rise further.
Nurofiq said preparations for possible impacts next year involve coordination with water resources authorities, river basin agencies, the Ministry of Agriculture and the forestry sector.
Land development and support for farmers
Separately, the October 23 Presidential Secretariat statement outlined preparations to develop two million hectares of mineral soil land to sustain food self-sufficiency. The initial 500,000-hectare phase involves the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Defense and the Indonesian National Defense Forces (TNI).
The government also reported a 20 percent cut in fertilizer prices and an increase in the government purchase price for unhusked rice. It credited those policies with lifting the Farmers' Terms of Trade to 131, a level Sulaiman described as the highest since independence.
